Beyond Budget 2021
Budget 2021 & BeyondAs a result of the many budgets in 2020, many stabilising measures deemed necessary to keep the country on its feet and help it find its way through the pandemic have already been announced and implemented.

This article was first published by Bloomberg Tax on 31 March 2021. Reproduced with permission from Copyright 2021 The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. (800-372-1033) www.bloombergindustry.com.
The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented challenge to people’s way of life across the world. The economic and social disruption caused by the pandemic is devastating, with significant impact on lives and livelihoods.
A significant number of enterprises face an existential threat, resulting in a large part of the global workforce being at risk of losing their income streams. Informal economy workers are particularly impacted, as they generally lack social security protection and access to quality healthcare and have lost access to productive assets.
The economic response of various governments to the crisis has also been unprecedented. Over $10 trillion has been announced by way of various stimulus packages to provide financial assistance to people and businesses across the world. Governments have included all forms of financial assistance in these packages, including cash transfers to individuals and organizations, guarantees, loans, deferrals, and equity investments. In many cases, the stimulus packages by governments have ranged from 10% to 20% of their current national gross domestic product (GDP), whilst they brace themselves for a significant fall in GDP going forward. It is a vicious circle that may lead to recession and even depression in the years to come.
Most of the Covid-related stimulus financing has come from increased government borrowings. Such significant borrowings will have the impact of widening budget deficits and a consequential increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. More significantly, there will be questions around how governments plan for repayment of these debts. It is likely that tax (both direct and indirect) will have an important role to play in connection with governmental efforts to repay their public debt.
Whilst tax will remain a significant avenue for reducing public debt, governments will be concerned that a significant hike in tax rates may not do the trick, especially from a direct tax perspective. With enterprises struggling to stay afloat, the profits on which the taxes are to be imposed will in any event be limited or non-existent. Separately, significant tax rates hikes would lead to fresh investments being diverted to other, more “tax friendly” jurisdictions. Hence raising of tax rates may not be the immediate response by many governments.
Nevertheless, the pressure to collect additional tax revenues will remain an imperative. Coupled with the difficulty in doing so through an increase in tax rates, we are likely to see a trend towards an increase in tax disputes around the world. One area where such disputes may be rather glaring will be in the area of transfer pricing, where the dispute is often between two tax administrations, over which one has the right to tax certain income.
Transfer pricing has been given special attention by tax authorities since it is often perceived by them to be a tool used by multinationals to shift profits overseas.
Considering that transfer pricing concepts are ever-evolving, with perspectives themselves being largely “gray” in nature (with differing interpretations of the arm’s-length price), and also considering that a taxpayer’s transfer pricing position is only as strong as the documentation they maintain, tax authorities worldwide find transfer pricing adjustments relatively easy to target.
That apart, since transfer pricing adjustments result in a restatement of transaction values (which could run into millions of dollars), even a minor restatement/adjustment in transactional values could result in significant tax collection. With this in mind, tax authorities have been increasing their focus on transfer pricing matters, resulting in transfer pricing audits and controversies becoming the largest and most contentious tax disputes in the world.
Over the last few years, several jurisdictions, many of which are key trading partners for Singapore, have taken focused measures to bring about efficiencies in their tax and transfer pricing audit approaches. The intent, globally, is to move to a risk-based assessment system which would allow optimal collection of taxes with minimal efforts.
Examples of such measures include:
The above measures indicate an intent to review tax and transfer pricing arrangements on a more informed basis and to target taxpayers in a more efficient manner. This trend is likely to continue, considering the pressures on tax collection, and an intent to protect each jurisdiction’s tax base.
Some of the expected areas where future transfer pricing aggression is likely to be focused include:
Such transfer pricing aggression would result in MNC groups facing significant litigation in multiple jurisdictions leading to significant costs and efforts on such litigation. Whilst tax authorities can make transfer pricing adjustments, based on preconceived notions and presumptions, within a few months (through the audit process), it takes a taxpayer many years and a significant amount of money to finally get relief on such adjustments. The alternative for the MNC would be to accept economic double taxation on the same income.
Whilst the Singapore transfer pricing regulations are relatively new, some of Singapore’s trading partners have had transfer pricing regulations and practices in place for several years now.
Many countries that seem to adopt aggressive transfer pricing approaches also happen to be key trading partners with Singapore. These jurisdictions have well-developed transfer pricing regulations, contemporaneous documentation requirements and well-defined transfer pricing audit regimes. That apart, the transfer pricing regulations in these jurisdictions often impose significant penalties on transfer pricing adjustments as well as providing for secondary adjustments (where additional income determined through the transfer pricing audit process is not remitted back into those countries).
The risk for Singapore in such cases would be one of compromising its fair share of profits as it gets caught in the middle of such transfer pricing aggression. Because of the draconian regulations in many jurisdictions, coupled with their aggressive audit approach, MNCs often tend to take conservative positions when operating in them. This would typically result in a higher attribution of the MNC group’s profits to these high-risk jurisdictions.
Singapore, with a relatively relaxed view on transfer pricing and a rather pragmatic penalty regime, may end up having to part with revenues/profits rightfully belonging to it. This could have disastrous consequences in Singapore considering a large part of its corporate taxpayers are part of MNC groups. To ensure it is able to attract its fair share of income and consequently collect its fair share of taxes, it would be prudent for Singapore to remain vigilant on this front.
Given that Singapore is viewed as one of the more attractive investment and business destinations within Asia, it may not be prudent for the government to take drastic measures to mitigate potential profit shifting measures. However, some reasonable measures that could be adopted could include:
Such pragmatic approaches would ensure that Singapore is not compromised in respect of its fair share of tax revenue while at the same time maintaining itself as an attractive investment destination.
As a result of the many budgets in 2020, many stabilising measures deemed necessary to keep the country on its feet and help it find its way through the pandemic have already been announced and implemented.
Over the last five years in Singapore, there has been a continuation of a global shift towards protectionist immigration policy. Although this shift is not new, it seems to have gathered pace.
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